There is an awful lot to like about plug-in or plug-in hybrid vehicles. Their high efficiency directly addresses both the geopolitical problems of fossil fuels and are low in green house gas emissions. So what's not to like?
Well, how about freezing in the dark (or if you are in California, sweating in the dark)?
One of the greatest potential train wrecks around renewables is in the area of electric vehicles (EVs). The conventional wisdom is that utilities should like EVs (or plug-in hybrid EVs, PHEVs) because they will generally be recharged by the owner upon his arrival at home, after the peak generation demand has past. It would appear to be a win-win-win. Utilities get some off-peak sales, owners get economical transportation, and the nation lessens its demands for imported oil.
The problem is that local neighborhoods and whole suburbs do not draw their peak demand during the day. Most people are at work then. Their homes draw maximum demand upon their return. They turn on the air conditioning, start cooking, and get a load of laundry going. And soon, plug in their cars. Just because there is generation capacity 100 miles away, it doesn’t mean that the local substations or even the lines and transformers out on the distribution system can handle this new load.
I've seen some studies that say the average electric vehicle will DOUBLE the peak demand of the average home that recharges one. Further, they also say that demographically, EV ownership is expected to be clustered in certain neighborhoods. So not only will we see pole top transformers going off like roman candles, but we can expect to have to reinforce entire feeders and substations as well.
So how will this all come our? Tomorrow, I'll describe what I think the big, difficult choices will be for utilities and their regulators as the EV wave continues to gain momentum.
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